Saturday, December 19, 2015
CERRInvestments: Wow what a week to see stocks rise and fall. Interest rates going up and oil prices still falling - $34.73 a barrel. US enters the oil export business after years of objections. Get ready for more fraudsters to enter the market since the Federal Government is trying to loosen financial regulations. At the moment Small Cap Stocks still taking a beating. International Stocks are just trading water. REIT stocks are breaking even. Only game in play is Large Cap US Stocks and they just took a hit two days straight. I am hoping that trend stops. The market hasn't been this low since Oct 15. Now what happens with this new Government tax bill looking to get approved. Bet some tax credits will go to companies owned by our Congressmen. Lobbyist will be out in force trying to get free money for large ticket items. It is time to be defensive until we get a clue on what is happening out there. How come the big financial advisers missed this big drop on Friday in the markets? Yes -The third Friday of every March, June, September, and December is quadruple "witching," the expiration of three related classes of options and futures contracts, along with individual stock futures options. But does that have to cause an over 300 point drop? Has that happen in the past? If that was the case stock pundits would have been out warning people but they didn't. People who own the the trading system (high frequency traders), those that can see who is buying and selling, made a killing Friday by causing a dip so they could make a profit. I bet there were some big trading going on before the sell off. Get ready for more volatility. The game is rigged.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
CERR Investments: Stock market reversal possible? Large and small cap funds took a hit last week that some are saying could be the beginning of a reversal. REIT funds keep declining every time there is a mention of interest rate hikes. Rate hikes have been used by the FEDs for years and now the tactic isn't working as before. Big business will start to sell off stocks to make the FEDs rethink raising rates but how long will that work? Sooner or later this strategy will spook the small investor then we all are in a lot of hurt.
Friday, September 4, 2015
CERR Investments - The new age of high frequency trading and market manipulation by countries (USA,China,etc.) an average investor is at a huge disadvantage. People are making huge amounts of money on market swings. The average investors cannot move money in and out of the market without paying large expense fees to money managers. This is what they want - fear enters the markets so they make more money. Countries are lower interest rates to rock bottom prices so that the average investors only way to make money is to look at stocks. Governments are saying forget about risks. We want your money in the market. When fear enters the market people look to safer investments but there is no money to be made there. Eventually stagnation could occur where people stop buying because they need to hold onto what they have. Big Investors (secret society) are already getting nervous and trying to influence the markets by pulling their money out due to the up and coming interest rate hikes. Are they trying to influence the Feds or the Feds in on it so money is made and the public is not any wiser? Knowledge is Power! The Feds seem to be playing a risky game of chicken here. At the moment Big Institutions have been winning but the game is about to be over or at least change. Lets think about it, why are governments so involved if everything was okay - quantitative easing, lowering interest rates, devaluating currencies? When things go wrong look at emerging markets to fail first since they have lesser tools to work with. Look how the oil companies have been saying we are running out of oil. Now we are in an oil glut. If you want to raise prices say you are running out. Its supply and demand.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
CERR Investments - Yes China is manipulating their currency to compete with global markets. Something is strangely going wrong in china. First you have a stock market crash and how fixing the currency. When is the next shoe going to drop? So when China currency is cheap all the other countries commodities will become more expensive. How will these poorer countries compete if they don't devalue their currencies? When things become cheaper to buy companies will make less profits since their are not a lot of buyers. Unless US wages start increasing buyers will be far and fewer. I'm looking for tougher times ahead unless policy changes. Oh yes, will US raise rates in September as planned? We are all waiting to see.
Monday, July 27, 2015
CERR Investments.It appears that the wool is finally being dropped from peoples eyes. Sooner or later we will understand that this stock market is only up due to government intervention. China seems to know that and is trying to replicate the same thing by shoring up its economy with money and zero interest rates. Yahoo Finance reported today that industrial profits in the world’s second-biggest economy fell in June, sending Chinese shares tumbling on speculation a government intervention to stem a market selloff can’t be sustained amid weak growth. Now stock investors are waiting to see what the Feds will do and if they will try to raise rates this September. What ever happen to fundamentals and technicals? How is the growth rate for the US? It appears stock analysis went away in 2009 when the government took money from ordinary savings accounts, bonds, money markets - so that people would be forced to invest in stocks. How long will this game last remains to be seen.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
CERR Investments. Lately I thought the circumstances in Greece and China would be enough to rattle the markets so that there would be at least a 5% decline in the markets. It appears that Governments and Big Investors have decided to play ball together and prevent that from happening. No decision has been made in Greece as of yet and still the market climb last week. China still has the same problems it had before the decline but Big Institutions have decided to buy back in. Is it really good to artificially hold up these market margins? Only time will tell.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
CERR Investments: Isn't it strange that the Big Institutions are already saying that the Feds should delay interest rate hikes. Big Institutions have had so much free money since 2009 they will not want to change for a while longer.Money market rates, CDs, Bank Accounts, any investments that are small and less risky are not making any money. The game is still is to drive people towards riskier stocks and protect the investors who have already invested. The problem with that is outside forces. Now you see Greece, Employment, China, and the "Unknown" entering the discussions and becoming more of a concern. The small investor was burned badly in 2009 and was not helped very much with the financial bail out. The small investor lost all of his capital so there was no way to recoup or reinvest. Also because wages are stagnant people just don't have that extra capital to invest today. Big Institutions are not hiring more people because they are trying to get as much profit as possible. However once companies start raising minimum wages we may see some changes. Tickle down theory is just not working.
Friday, June 26, 2015
CERR Investments: Wow the state of the market is still curious to me. Everyone is still waiting on when interest rates are going to go up and when the Greek problem will be solved. All the pundits are out saying crash and burn but nothing of the sort has happen and the market keeps rising. Boy are we playing a game of cards here. The bets are in that the Big Boys are not going to let all of this money leave the market. They will say anything to make you feel like things are on an even track and steady as you go line. Something on the backside of the market must be happening because REIT funds have started pulling money out of the market faster than you can say "Run". As long as nothing else happens this seems to be the path we will be on for awhile.
Sunday, June 21, 2015
CERR Investments. Wow is this really a fake market propped up my Federal Reserving buying and printing money. How long will this last? Well the big institutions I am sure will like to continue making more money off of the little guy as long as they can. I don't expect any changes to happen anytime soon. Really there is no other game in town to go to right now as long as interest rates are kept artificially low. It surprises me that the Government knows how they are making certain parts of the nation wealthy at the expense of others. As you prop up stock prices you keep wages low and continue to ignore the technicals and fundamentals of stock investing. As long as the government is in the lead of things stocks will continue to behave oddly.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
CERR Investments: It appears the markets are waiting for something to happen. Lately we have had some volatility occurring and the natives are starting to get restless. Real estate markets, Small Caps, and International Funds are waiting to see what is going to be the next trigger. Air Lines and Oil still have not found any legs. Is it time to me defensive? Tomorrow could be a good sign for the direction of the stocks if the Dow declines. Look for the Feds to come out with a speech to add confidence in the markets. The only game left is not to let anyone know when interest rates will raise. Watch big institutions head for the exit so they can have an excuse to sell. Remember they big guy has to make money but cant make it see like it was their idea. They need someone to blame like the Feds, interest rates, war, global warming, etc. Feds influence has changed the game. Technicals and Fundamentals don't work like they used to. All you can do now is just watch the crown and try to determine when the exit doors start opening.